000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...The pressure gradient across 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will tighten today as high pressure 
builds southward into southern Mexico behind a cold front in the 
western Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds are expected over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec for about 24 hours, peaking by early Fri 
with seas to 13-15 ft. Winds over the Gulf will become light and 
variable by Sat afternoon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N95W to 09N133W to 13N140W. No significant 
convection is noted across the basin along the convergence zone.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge prevails across the area anchored by a
surface high located north of the area. The pressure gradient 
along and offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing 
gentle to moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 7 ft. A 
fairly quiet pattern should persist through Saturday. NW swell 
of 7-8 ft will reach the offshore waters off Baja California 
Norte on Sunday. 

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are 
expected through early Fri. A low pressure trough will develop 
over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and Sat, and S to SW winds E of 
the trough N of 29N will strengthen on Sat in advance of an 
approaching cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
each night through the weekend. Areal coverage of gap winds near 
the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu night and Fri morning and 
allow the wind-generated seas to propagate further downwind from 
its source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Winds will decrease on Sun and Mon.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north 
of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail 
S of 09N through Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening surface trough extends from 23N124W to 17N122W. A 
dissipating upper low is producing areas of embedded isolated 
showers from 18N to 22N between 106W and 113W.

The gradient between high pressure N of 30N and lower pressure 
associated with the convergence zone will support moderate trade 
winds during the next several days. The exception will be fresh 
southerly winds expected to develop W of 135W and N of 18N 
through Fri, associated with an area of low pressure developing 
W of 140W. Seas will be 7 to 9 ft in western waters this weekend.

$$

Mundell