000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2115 UTC Wed Feb 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...The pressure gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will tighten by Thu morning as high pressure builds southward in Mexico, while a cold front enters the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the next 40-48 hours, peaking by early Fri with seas to 10-13 ft. Winds over the Gulf will become light and variable by Sat afternoon/evening. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 07N120W to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is noted along these boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge prevails across the area anchored by a surface high located north of the area. The pressure gradient along and offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing gentle to moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 6 ft. A fairly quiet pattern should persist through the beginning of the weekend. Later in the weekend, a NW swell of 7 to 8 ft will reach the offshore waters off of Baja California Norte. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail today. A freshening of NW winds later in the week will cause seas to build to 3-4 ft tonight and Thu. A low pressure trough will develop over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and Sat, and S to SW winds E of the trough N of 29N will strengthen on Sat in advance of an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Intermittent minor eruptions of ash are expected to remain over land during the next 24 hours. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over the Gulf of Papagayo the rest of the week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri, and allow the wind generated seas of 8-9 ft to propagate further downwind from its source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Winds will decrease on Sun and Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 20N125W to 17N122W. This trough is the surface reflection of an upper-level low centered near 20N123W. The upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness north of 15N east of 120W, with embedded scattered showers from 15N to 26N between 106W and 120W. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of 30N and the equatorial trough will support mainly moderate winds over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific the next several days. The only exception appear to be fresh southerly winds that are forecast to develop W of 137W and N of 25N Thu through Fri associated with an area of low pressure developing W of our area of discussion. Seas mainly between 6-8 ft are expected through the upcoming weekend, with NE swell to 9 ft from the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale reaching the open waters as far west as 105W by Fri night. $$ ERA