000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...The pressure gradient over 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will tighten by early Thu as high 
pressure builds southward in Mexico, while a cold front enters 
the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds are expected over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening through Fri morning, peaking 
early Fri morning with seas to 12-14 ft. Winds over the Gulf 
will become light and variable by Sat night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 09N140W. No significant convection is 
noted along the convergence zone. Elsewhere, a surface trough 
extends from 23N119W to 15N123W. This trough is the surface 
reflection of an upper low centered near 21N121W. The upper low 
is producing widespread cloudiness north of 17N east of 121W, 
with embedded stratocumulus shower activity. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak elongated ridge extends from north of the area to NE of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient along and 
offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing gentle to 
moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 6 ft. A fairly quiet 
pattern should persist through Sat. 

Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas 
will prevail today. A modest increase in NW winds later in the 
week will cause seas to build to 3-4 ft tonight and Thu. A low 
pressure trough will develop over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and 
Sat, and S to SW winds E of the trough will strengthen on Sat in 
advance of an approaching cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Intermittent minor eruptions of ash 
are expected to remain over land during the next 24 hours.

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over 
the Gulf of Papagayo the rest of the week. Areal coverage of gap 
winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri, and 
allow the wind generated seas to propagate further downwind from 
its source region, merging with the seas downwind from the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Winds will decrease on Sun and Mon.

Elsewhere, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Panama this 
morning. Gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 
09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S 
of 09N through Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The ridge of high pressure extending S between 125W and 140W 
will remain in place during the next several days. NW swell 
generated by a fetch of southerly winds west of the area will 
gradually subside through Thu. Another area of 7-8 ft seas will 
develop west of 135W on Thu. Fairly benign weather will prevail 
elsewhere across most of the area through the end of the week.

$$
Mundell