000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning...The pressure gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will tighten by early Thu as high pressure builds southward in Mexico, while a cold front enters the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force gap winds should commence over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening through Fri morning, peaking early Fri morning with seas to 12-13 ft. Winds over the Gulf will decrease to light and variable by Sat night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 00N80W to 05N89W. The ITCZ continues from 05N89W to 09N125W to 09N140W. No significant convection is noted along the convergence zone. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 23N119W to 15N123W. This trough is the surface reflection of an upper low centered near 21N121W. The upper low is producing widespread cloudiness north of 17N east of 123W, with embedded stratocumulus shower activity. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak elongated ridge extends from north of the area to NE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient along and offshore of the Baja California peninsula is producing gentle to moderate NW winds, with seas generally 5 to 6 ft. This fairly quiet pattern should persist through Sat. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail through Wednesday. A modest increase in NW winds later in the week will cause seas to build to 3-4 ft Wed evening through Thu. A low pressure trough will develop over the Baja Peninsula on Fri and Sat, and S to SW winds E of the trough will strengthen on Sat in advance of an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Intermittent eruptions of volcanic ash from the volcano are expected to remain over land during the next 24 hours. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over the Gulf of Papagayo the entire week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri, and allow the wind generated seas to propagate further downwind from its source region and merge with the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri and Sat. Winds will decrease on Sun and Mon. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail north of 09N, and light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The ridge of high pressure extending S between 125W and 140W will remain in place during the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of southerly winds west of the area will gradually subside through Thu. Another area of 8 ft seas will develop from 15N to 20N west of 135W on Thu. Fairly benign weather will prevail across most of the discussion area through the end of the week. $$ Mundell