000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 UTC Mon Feb 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 01N82W to 03N92W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 04N110W to 06N120W, then resumes from 08N126W to beyond 08N140W. There is no significant convection currently associated with the surface trough and ITCZ. Another surface trough that divides the ITCZ reaches from 07N123W to 15N122W to 20N120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 19N between 126W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 17N between 121W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: N winds will pulse between fresh and strong until around sunrise today and then again tonight until early Tue with nocturnal drainage flow. Winds will be weaker Tue afternoon through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter as high pres builds southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec while a cold front moves into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Another gale force gap wind may commence over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu through Fri night as this pattern develops. This event will peak on Fri morning and produce an area of 8 ft seas that will merge with the area of 8 ft seas propagating downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. The merged area will spread as far S as 06N and as far W as 105W. Winds over the Gulf will taper to light and variable by Sat night. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to run between 3 and 6 ft through Mon as a fairly quiet pattern prevails. Long period NW swell will cause seas to begin building to between 5 and 7 ft along the Baja Peninsula Tue and Wed. Seas in this region will begin to subside on Thu. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail along the Pacific coast of Baja Fri and Sat. Gulf of California: Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will generally prevail through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Washington, DC detected occasional emissions from the summit of the volcano earlier this morning, but no recent emissions have been detected. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo and merge with the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri and Sat. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through Wed morning, becoming moderate to fresh Thu and Fri. Otherwise, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist during the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently NW of the Hawaiian Islands have spread across the W portion of the discussion area and are generating seas of 8 to 10 ft from 10N to 30N W of 132W. The swell will continue to propagate SE and decay. The area of combined seas greater than 8 ft will eventually stretch from 10N to 30N between 127W and 140W by Mon evening. This area of seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue night as the underlying NW swell continue to decay. Weather for the remainder of the week looks benign with only light to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas beyond 250 nm offshore. A broad and weak surface trough currently extending from 07N122W to 14N121W to 18N119W is generating convection but the pressure gradient near the trough is weak as well. The trough will remain near its current location and eventually dissipate by Sat. $$ CAM