000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1550 UTC Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N72W to 06N86W to 05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 07N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 18N114W to 12N115W to 10N121W to 11N123W to 16N127W to 19N121W TO 18N114W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly flow will pulse to fresh to strong the next few nights and early mornings with nocturnal drainage flow. Winds will be weaker Tue afternoon through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten thereafter as high pres builds southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec while a cold front moves into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Another gale force gap wind may commence over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu through Fri night as this pattern develops. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to run between 3 and 6 ft through Mon as a fairly quiet pattern prevails. Long period NW swell will cause seas to begin building to between 5 and 7 ft along the Baja Peninsula Tue and Wed. Seas in this region will begin to subside on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Washington, DC has detected occasional emissions from the summit of the volcano during the past several hours. However, any volcanic ash emissions are expected to remain within 30 miles of the summit and well inland during the next 24 hours. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through the week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through Wed morning, becoming moderate to fresh Thu and Fri. Otherwise, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist during the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently N of the Hawaiian Islands are entering the NW portion of the discussion area. The swell will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas eventually stretching from 10N to 30N between 125W and 140W by Mon evening. This area of seas will subside by Tue night as the NW swell decay. A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 133W. This area will slowly propagate W and merge with the new set of NW swell mentioned in the previous paragraph tonight into early Mon. $$ Lewitsky