000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040341 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 214 UTC Sun Feb 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N76W to 04N81W to 05N86W to 04N94W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 08N118W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 116W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 11N between 130W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient across the region has weakened as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts E. This has allowed gale force winds to diminish earlier this afternoon. Residual fresh to strong northerly flow will diminish by Sun afternoon as the pressure gradient continues to weaken, then will pulse back to fresh to strong in response to nocturnal drainage flow late Sun into early Mon, then again late Mon into early Tue before finally tapering off. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind even may commence in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night in response to a strong cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico. This event will continue pulsing through next Fri morning. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to run between 3 and 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. Long period NW swell will cause seas to begin building along the Baja Peninsula on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Although a prominent hot spot remains evident in satellite imagery, the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center based in Washington, DC has discontinued advisories on this volcano as ash emissions are no longer being detected. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase next Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas to propagate further downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through Wed morning, then winds will become moderate to fresh Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently well to the NW of the discussion area will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas stretching from 10N to 30N between 130W and 140W on Sun and Mon. This area of seas will subside by Tue night and the NW swell decay. A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8-9 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 12N and W of 137W. This area will slowly propagate W through Sun afternoon, eventually merging with the new set of NW swell mentioned in the previous paragraph on Sun. $$ CAM