000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1550 UTC Sat Feb 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530| UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong high pressure ridge along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico is maintaining a strong pressure gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient will be strong enough to generate gales of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon until 18Z. From this evening through Mon, the high pressure ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will shift E and allow winds over the Gulf to decrease to strong tonight and then to light and variable Sun afternoon. The next gap wind event is slated for Mon morning through Tue afternoon, but winds are only expected to peak at strong speeds. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind even may commence in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night, pulsing through next Fri morning. Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S Guatemala is erupting. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface W of the volcano to near the coast of Guatemala N of 13.5N between 91W and 92W. Low level visibility may be reduced to 1 NM. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N74W to 05N90W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 10N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong within an area bounded by 24N109W to 20N105W to 14N110W to 08N129W to 18N121W to 18N115W to 24N109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to special features section for more information on the ongoing gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 4 to 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala: Please refer to special features section for more information on this ongoing volcanic eruption. Nocturnal winds will pulse to between fresh and strong speeds each night over the Gulf of Papagayo through next week. Areal coverage of gap winds near the Gulf of Papagayo will increase next Thu and Fri. This will allow the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of papagayo to combine with the area of 8 ft seas downwind from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse to strong during overnight hours in the Gulf of Panama as well through the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle S to SW winds will generally prevail S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A mix of NE and NW swell is generating an area of 8-9 ft seas N of the ITCZ to 14N and W of 124W. This area will slowly propagate W through Sun afternoon. A ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW part of the discussion area will persist the next several days. NW swell generated by a fetch of winds to the W of a nearly stationary frontal boundary currently well to the NW of the discussion area will propagate SE and generate a new area of 8 ft seas stretching from 10N to 30N between 130W and 140W on Sun and Mon. $$ Lewitsky