000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020305
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building behind 
a cold front moving into the northern Gulf of Mexico will induce 
a brief period of minimal gale force winds through Tehuantepec 
from 21Z on the 2nd to 18Z on the 3rd, with winds diminishing 
below gale force Sat evening. Please refer to the East Pacific 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
for more details.

EASTERN PACIFIC ASHFALL ADVISORY:
Fuego Volcano at 14.46N 90.88W over S Guatemala is erupting 01
Feb 2018. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface W of the
volcano to the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 13N to 15N between 91W
and 94W. Low level visibility may be reduced to 1 NM. Mariners
should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash...
you are encouraged to report the observation to the National
Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. On 02/1200 UTC 
conditions are forecast to improve.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N94W to 07N106W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 07N to 10N between 114W and 120W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to special features section 
for more information on the next gale force gap wind event. 
Also, refer to the volcanic ash advisory.

Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 
or below 6 ft through Mon as a fairly tranquil pattern prevails. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over 
the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night. Elsewhere N of 09N, 
gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh 
winds will pulse to strong during the overnight hours in the 
Gulf of Panama as well the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of 09N this weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A mix of NE and NW swell located south of 12N between 90W and 
115W will slowly subside through the weekend. Another pulse of 
NE swell generated from the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event will propagate across the waters S of 14N and E of 115W.
Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure extending SW across the NW 
part of the discussion area will persist the next several days. 

$$
Mundell