000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012037
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2022 UTC Thu Feb 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure that prevailed
over the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward. This has veered 
winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico and loosened the pressure 
gradient over the area. This has helped for winds to diminish 
below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will once 
again increase to gale force Fri evening. This will be a short 
duration event, with winds diminishing below gale force Sat
evening. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

EASTERN PACIFIC ASHFALL ADVISORY:
Fuego Volcano at 14.46N 90.88W over S Guatemala is erupting 01
Feb 2018. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface W of the
volcano to the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 13N to 15N between 91W
and 94W. Low level visibility may be reduced to 1 NM. Mariners
should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash...
you are encouraged to report the observation to the National
Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. On 02/1200 UTC 
conditions are forecast to improve.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N98W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N to 09N between 116W and 121W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features 
section above for more on the next gale force gap wind event. 
Also refer to the volcanic ash advisory.

Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are expected to remain at 
or below 6 ft through Mon as a tranquil pattern prevails. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over 
the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night. Elsewhere N of 09N, 
gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail. Moderate to fresh 
winds will pulse to strong during the overnight hours in the 
Gulf of Panama the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
S to SW winds will prevail S of 09N the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A mix of NE and NW swell continues to slowly subside over 
portions of the tradewind belt. Areal coverage now shows seas
less than 8 ft. Swell generated from the latest Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will propagate across the waters S of 
14N and E of 115W, while gradually subsiding through the end of 
the week.

$$
Formosa