000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Weakening high pressure over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico continues to support a tight pressure gradient across the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. Lingering minimal gale force Nly winds overnight across the gulf have diminished to around 30 kt this morning as the pressure gradient continues to slowly weaken. Winds will further diminish to around 25 kt this afternoon. A new cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front will help to re- initiate gales across Tehuantepec by Sun morning, and increase to strong gales Sun night. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N76W TO 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 07N111W TO beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate TO strong convection is noted within 60 nm s AND 90 NM n of the ITCZ between 110W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section above for more on the latest, and next expected, gale force gap wind event. Looking ahead, winds associated with the next gale force gap wind event starting early Sun are expected to increase to strong gales Sunday night, and further increase to storm force Mon evening through Tue as strong high pressure moves into the SE U.S. Gulf of California: Winds will strengthen to around 20 kt this morning and then 20-25 kt this afternoon as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region. Computer models suggest this pattern will persist through Sun, with the potential for small areas of winds to 30 kt Sun morning through Mon morning, mainly N of 29N. Peak seas are expected to gradually build to 9 ft early Sun. NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas associated with this swell peaked near 12 ft yesterday evening, and are subsiding very slowly this morning, with latest observations suggesting seas 8- 11 ft. Seas west of the Baja Peninsula will subside below 8 ft by early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse to strong the next several nights over the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail through Mon. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of 09N the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered north of the area near 34N127W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades from 09N to 21N and west of 120W, where seas are generally 9 to 13 ft. NW swell also continues to propagate across these waters. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell cover much of the forecast waters west of 115W. The area of high pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend, helping to maintain this area of fresh to strong trades, and will combine with the NW swell to keep seas in the 8 to 11 ft range through early Mon. $$ Stripling