000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
054 UTC Sat Jan 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Weakening high pressure over
eastern Mexico continues to support a tight pressure gradient
producing minimal gale force gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken
overnight, but the addition of nocturnal drainage flow will
maintain the minimal gale force gap winds through the overnight
hours. Winds will diminish below gale force this morning. Winds 
will further diminish to 25 kt during the day Saturday. However, 
a new frontal system will move across the Gulf of Mexico Sun 
and Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
once again help to re- initiate gales across Tehuantepec Sun 
morning. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N84W to 04.5N92W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04.5N92W to 04N98W to 06N110W to 08N130W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 114W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above for more on the latest, and next expected, gale force gap 
wind event. Looking ahead, winds associated to the next gale 
force gap wind event starting early Sun are expected to increase
to strong gales Sunday night, and further increase to storm force 
Mon night through Tue. 

Gulf of California: Winds will strengthen Sat to 20-25 kt as 
high pressure builds over the Great Basin region. Peak seas are 
expected to gradually build to 9 ft on Sun.

NW swell will continue to propagate across the waters off the 
coast of Baja California Norte tonight. Seas associated with 
this swell event will peak near 11 ft tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse to strong the next 
several nights over the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere N of 09N, 
gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail through Mon. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of 09N the next few 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered north of the area near 
34N127W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to strong trades from 09N to 23N and west of 
125W. NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast 
waters. Seas 8 ft or greater associated to this swell cover much
of the forecast waters west of 110W. The area of high pressure 
will remain north of the area through the weekend, helping to 
maintain this area of fresh to strong trades.
   
$$
AL