000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure dominating the eastern U.S. the past few days has reach the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. The broad ridge extends a narrow axis SW across eastern Mexico to SE Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the eastern Pacific waters is supporting minimal gale force winds this afternoon across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure will weaken over eastern Mexico the next 24 hours. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat. Winds will further diminish to 25 kt during the day Saturday. However, a new frontal system will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, with the associated building high pressure to re- initiate gales across Tehuantepec Sun morning. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N75W TO 07N84W TO 04.5N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N93W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm S and 150 nm N of the ITCZ W of 108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday. High pressure building in the wake of the front will once again force N winds across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and across the gulf to gale force during the day Sun and increase to strong gales Sunday night. Winds will further increase through Mon night and may reach storm force Mon night through Tue. Gulf of California: NWly winds will strengthen Sat to 20-25 kt as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region, and increase further to 20 to 30 kt early Sun through Sun night. Peak seas are expected to gradually build to 9 ft on Sun. Fresh NW swell will continue to propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte today. Seas associated with this large swell event will peak near 11 ft tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds prevail across the coastal waters from the Gulf of Panama to Guatemala this afternoon and will continue through Sat before diminishing modestly through Mon. Winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to strong each of the next several nights, and peak near 30 kt within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere gentle southerly winds will dominate the area S of 09N for the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered north of the area near 33N128W. The pressure gradient between this broad area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades from 09N to 24N and west of 124W. NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast waters, and is mixing with NE waves being generated by the tradewinds to produce seas 8 ft or greater covering most of the area W of 110W. The high pressure and associated broad surface ridge will remain north of the area through the weekend to maintain this relatively large area of fresh to strong trades. $$ Stripling