000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure 
dominating the eastern U.S. this morning extends a ridge SW 
across eastern Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area 
of high pressure and lower pressure over the eastern Pacific 
waters is supporting gale force winds to 40 kt over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. High pressure will weaken over eastern Mexico the 
next 24 hours. This will loosen the pressure gradient and 
diminish winds below gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
tonight. Winds will further diminish to 25 kt on Saturday. 
However, a new frontal system will move into the NW Gulf of 
Mexico Sun morning with the associated building high pressure to 
re-initiate gales across Tehuantepec Sun morning. Please refer to 
the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N74W TO 09N80W TO 05N90W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N90W TO 07N105W TO 06.5N113W TO BEYOND 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
01.5N to 06N between 80W and the coast of Colombia. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm S an d 120 
nm N of the ITCZ W of 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above for more on the latest gale force gap wind event. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Sunday 
into Monday. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
once again help for winds to increase to gale force Sunday 
night. Winds will further increase through Mon night and may 
reach storm force. 

Gulf of California: NWly winds will strengthen Sat to 20-25 kt 
as high pressure builds over the Great Basin region, and 
increase further to 20 to 30 kt early Sun through Sun night.

Fresh NW swell will propagate into the waters off the coast of 
Baja California Norte today. Seas associated with this 
large swell event will peak near 11 ft tonight. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo for 
the next several nights, and peak near 30 kt within 90 nm of the 
coast. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will 
prevail, and gentle southerly winds will dominate the area S of 
09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered north of the area near 
34N130W. The pressure gradient between this broad area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to strong trades from 09N to 22N and west of 
125W. NE swell continues to propagate across the forecast 
waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering most of the area W of 
110W. The area of high pressure will remain north of the area 
through the weekend maintaining this area of fresh to strong 
trades. 
   
$$
Stripling