000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252054
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1909 UTC Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in 
southern Mexico will produce sustained gale force winds over the 
Gulf region through early Sat. Winds are 40 kt with maximum seas
of 17 ft. Propagating N to NE swell will cause seas to build to 
8 ft well away from its source region through Fri night. Strong 
winds over the Gulf should diminish briefly Sat as high pres 
shifts E into the western Atlc. Another gale is possible Sunday 
evening as a strong cold front crosses the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Winds will increase to possible Storm Mon night. Please 
refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends westward from 08N78W to 05N90W TO
05N97W. The ITCZ continues from 05N97W to 07N110W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 115W 
and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above. 

Gulf of California: NW winds in the Gulf will diminish today as 
high pres north of the area weakens. Winds will increase Sat to
20-25 kt as high pressure builds northwest of the region. Seas
will build to 8 ft on Sun. 

Decaying NW swell is maintaining 6-7 ft seas off the coast of 
Baja California. A fresh set of large NW swell will propagate 
into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Fri 
evening. Seas associated with this swell will peak near 11 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo for the next week as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf 
of Mexico over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to 
gentle offshore flow will prevail, and gentle southerly winds 
will dominate the area S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across NW forecast waters from 30W121W to 
to 26N124W to 26N140W. Scatterometer data shows moderate winds 
on either side of the front, however, 8-9 ft NW swell is N of 
the front. The front will dissipate by Fri. Large long period NW
swell will sweep into the northern part of the forecast area 
through Sat. Fresh trade winds from 10N-24N west of 125W will 
support 9-11 ft seas within the region of strongest trade winds 
in mixed long period NW swell and short period NE wind waves. 
High pressure building behind the weakening front will increase 
the coverage of fresh to strong trades this evening through Fri 
night.
   
$$
Formosa