000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1432 UTC Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in 
southern Mexico will produce sustained gale force winds over the 
Gulf region through early Sat. Winds should peak today at 45 kt 
with maximum seas of 19-20 ft. Propagating N to NE swell will 
cause seas to build to 8 ft well away from its source region 
through Fri night. Strong winds over the Gulf should diminish 
briefly Sat as high pres shifts E into the western Atlc. Another 
gale is possible Sunday evening as a strong cold front crosses 
the western Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the East Pacific 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC 
for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends westward from 08N78W to 05N90W TO
05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 07N120W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection isfrom 06N to 09N between 120W and
140W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above. 

Gulf of California: NW winds in the Gulf will diminish today as 
high pres north of the area weakens. Winds will increase this 
weekend as high pressure builds northwest of the region. 

Decaying NW swell is maintaining 6-7 ft seas off the coast of 
Baja California. A fresh set of large NW swell will propagate 
into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Fri 
evening. Seas associated with this swell will peak near 11 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Sat night as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf 
of Mexico over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to 
gentle offshore flow will prevail, and gentle southerly winds 
will dominate the area S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across NW forecast waters from 30W125W to 
26N140W. Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate winds on 
either side of the front, however, 8-10 ft NW swell is N of the 
front. The front will stall and dissipate by early Fri. Large 
long period NW swell will sweep into the northern part of the 
forecast area through Sat. Fresh trade winds from 10N-23N west of
125W will support 9-11 ft seas within the region of strongest 
trade winds in mixed long period NW swell and short period NE 
wind waves. High pressure building behind the weakening front 
will increase the coverage of fresh to strong trades today 
through Fri night.
   
$$
Formosa