000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in 
southern Mexico associated high pressure north of a stationary 
front in the Gulf of Mexico will produce a continuous period of 
sustained gale force winds over the Gulf through Fri evening. 
Winds should peak Thu with maximum seas of 17 ft. Propagating N 
to NE swell will cause seas to build to 8 ft well away from its 
source region through Fri. Strong winds over the Gulf should 
diminish briefly Sat evening as high pres shifts E into the 
western Atlc. Another gale is possible Sunday evening as a 
strong cold front crosses the western Gulf of Mexico. Please 
refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N90W to 07N104W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N104W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within a few miles either side of the ITCZ axis 
between 107W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the special features section
above. 

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds expected across the 
Gulf this morning will diminish by evening as high pres north of 
the area weakens. Winds will increase once again this weekend as 
high pressure builds northwest of the region. 

Decaying NW swell are maintaining 8-10 ft seas off the coast of 
Baja California. The area of high seas will slowly recede today. 
A fresh set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off the 
coast of Baja California Norte Thu night. Seas associated with 
this swell will peak near 12 ft Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 
NW winds are expected off the far NW waters of Baja California 
Norte late this week as high pres builds east toward the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong each night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Sat night as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf 
of Mexico over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to 
gentle offshore flow will prevail, and gentle southerly winds 
will dominate the area S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between high pressure centered near 30N130W and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh 
to occasionally strong trade winds from 10N-15N west of 125W, 
with peak seas of 12 ft. Large seas will continue within the 
region of strongest trade winds in mixed long period NW swell 
and short period NE wind waves. Seas 8 ft or greater cover 
nearly all the the open waters N of 05N and west of 106W. The 
area of fresh to strong trades and high seas north of the ITCZ 
will erode westward today as the high near 30N weakens and a 
cold front reaches the NW waters. High pressure building behind 
the cold front will once again increase the coverage of the 
fresh to strong trades early Thu through Fri night.
   
$$
Mundell