000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1449 UTC Mon Jan 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N87W to 07N108W. The ITCZ continues from 07N108W to 09N117W to 10N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 07N between 76W and 84W and also from 04N to 06N between 86W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 10N between 120W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds are expected to develop tonight and increase to near gale force Tuesday. Winds are expected to briefly spike to gale force on Wednesday night as a cold front crosses SE Mexico and nocturnal drainage flow augments the winds. Strong to near gale winds will then prevail Thursday through Friday morning, before diminishing late Friday as high pres centered over the SE United States shifts E into the western Atlc. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are expected across the central and southern portions of the Gulf through Tuesday before diminishing by midweek as Great Basin high pres is weakened by low pres moving into the NW United States. Winds will increase once again this weekend as high pressure rebuild to the lee of the low over the western United States. Decaying NW swell are still maintaining seas in the 8 to 10 ft range off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. This large swell is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs of Baja California and mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly subside the next couple of days, they are still expected to remain above 8 ft over this area into the middle of the week. A fresh set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Thu night. Seas associated with this swell will peak near 13 ft Friday. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds are possible just west of Baja California Norte late this week as high pressure builds east toward the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh over the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and will then pulse to strong each night Tuesday night through Thursday night as high pres ridges SE from the Gulf of Mexico over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle offshore flow will prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S of 09N for the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered just north of the area near 32N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds from 08N to 25N and west of 120W with peak seas of 14 ft, as confirmed by satellite altimeter passes from 0245Z and 0550Z. Combined seas of 12 ft or greater will continue to prevail within this region of strong trade winds, in a mix of dominant long period NW swell and short period NE wind waves. Seas 8 ft or greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of 07N and west of 103W. The area of fresh to strong trades prevail north of the ITCZ will gradually erode westward during the next couple of days as high pressure north of the forecast waters is weakened by low pressure moving E into the NW United States. Areal coverage of the fresh to strong trades and seas 12 ft or greater will shrink and shift to the W of 140W by Wed evening as the area of high pressure weakens and the cold front associated with the low approaches the NW waters. High pressure building back in behind the cold front will once again cause the coverage of the fresh to strong trades to increase Thu through Fri night. $$ CAM