000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211504
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1433 UTC Sun Jan 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N85W to 05N95W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 09.5N120W to 09N128W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 90 nm north of trough between 78W and 85W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 15N
between 113W and 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less this
afternoon. Strong to near gale winds are expected to develop 
Monday night, prevailing through Thursday. 

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are expected across 
the central and southern portions of the Gulf starting this 
evening and prevailing through Tuesday before diminishing 
midweek.

Subsiding NW swell continues to keep seas in the 8 to 12 ft range
off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. This large swell
is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs of Baja 
California and mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly subside 
the next couple of days, they are still expected to remain above 
8 ft over this area into the middle of next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh each night over the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Mon night and will then pulse to strong each 
night through Thu night. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle 
offshore flow will prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S
of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered just north of the area near
32N130W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to strong winds from 10N to 22N and west of 
122W. Combined seas 12 ft or greater prevail within this region 
of strong tradewinds, primarily from 16N to 21N west of 128W in a
mix of long period NW swell and shorter period NE wind waves. 
Seas 8 ft or greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of 
05N and west of 105W. Fresh to strong trades will prevail north 
of the ITCZ to around 20N for the next couple of days as high 
pressure remains north of the forecast waters. Areal coverage of 
the fresh to strong trades will diminish by midweek as the area 
of high pressure weakens and a cold front approaches the NW 
waters. High pressure building behind the cold front will once 
again increase coverage of the fresh to strong trades Thursday. 
   
$$
AL