000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200331
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0315 UTC Sat Jan 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N75W to 09N84W to 05N92W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 07N105W to 08N119W then resumes W
of a surface trough near 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate from 07N to 14N between 113W and 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale winds will continue
through tonight, then will diminish briefly below 20 kt during 
the daytime Saturday. The winds will pulse to 25 kt Saturday 
night, then drop below 20 kt late Sunday morning through Monday. 
A plume of NE swell associated with the strong winds in the area 
the past few days continue to propagate well away from 
Tehuantepec, and mix with open ocean long period NW swell. This 
swell will diminish below 8 ft over these waters by late 
Saturday. Looking ahead, strong to near gale winds are expected 
again beginning Monday night and prevailing through Wednesday. 

Gulf of California: Winds will increase to fresh to strong 
behind a cold front in the northern gulf tonight. The front will 
gradually become ill defined on Saturday as it moves southward 
with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh. The pressure 
gradient will begin to tighten across the area Sunday as low
pressure over interior SW United States intensifies, leading to 
fresh to strong winds across most of the gulf Sunday evening 
through Monday. These winds will then slowly diminish Monday 
night through Wednesday. 

Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, large NW swell 
continues to propagate SE across the area, with seas of 8-13 ft
prevailing. This large swell is producing high surf along coasts
and outer reefs of Baja California and mainland Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds will pulse to strong tonight. Elsewhere N of 
09N, light to gentle offshore flow will prevail. Gentle southerly
winds will prevail S of 09N for the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the 
forecast waters. Seas 12 ft or greater prevail over much of the
forecast waters north of 25N, currently peaking near 15 ft. Seas
8 ft or greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of 06N. 
Fresh to strong trades will prevail north of the ITCZ to around 
20N for the next several days, supporting combined seas of 10 to
13 ft from the ITCZ to 25N W of 115W through early next week. A
surface trough embedded in the vicinity of the ITCZ along 123W 
is helping to generate convection across the area. This 
convection is discussed in the ITCZ section. 
   
$$
Latto