000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have strengthened overnight, as strong high pressure behind a cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico continues to build SSE and the region. The strong gales across and downwind of Tehuantepec have reached near 45 kt and area expected to continue near 45 kt throughout the day. Winds are then expected to gradually diminish below gale force by Friday afternoon. The resultant plume of NE swell has propagated well southwest of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft and higher currently reaching as far S as the Equator and as far W as 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W TO 08N84W TO 04.5N95W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that the trough transitions to ITCZ and extends TO 09.5N138W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 77W and 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 99W and 110W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection was noted within 210 nm N and 90 nm S of the ITCZ between 111W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special feature section for information about the ongoing gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. W of the Baja California Peninsula: Large NW swell continues to propagate SE across the waters west of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 9 to 12 ft prevailing. This large swell is generating high and powerful surf along the coasts and outer reefs of Baja and mainland Mexico and will continue through Wed, with coastal flooding possible. Another pulse of NW swell will reach the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Thursday night. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across the offshore waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across across the entire gulf waters through Fri, except for a brief period of fresh winds Wed afternoon through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 09N moderate offshore gap winds will diminish to light to gentle midweek. S of 09N light to gentle winds will prevail. The NW swell impacting Mexican coasts and coastal waters will arrive across the area waters Thu and Fri and raise offshore seas to 5- 7 ft outside of the higher seas generated downwind of the gap wind areas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the forecast waters. Seas in the 10 to 14 ft range prevail N OF 10N and to the W OF 115W. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated to this swell prevail W of 108W. The next pulse of large NW swell will enter the NW waters Wednesday night, with seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will build seas greater than 12 ft over much of the waters N of 15N and W of 120W by Sat night. $$ Stripling