000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150401
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:  Strong gales continue across 
the Tehuantpec region tonight and extend downwind in a large 
plume to near 12.5N96W, where seas are as high as 20 ft. Little 
change is expected overnight before winds begin to slowly 
diminish and the areal coverage of the strong to gale winds 
begins to diminish in size through Tue evening. A new cold front 
will move into the Gulf of Mexico and initiate another round of 
strong gales across Tehuantepec Tue night through Thu evening or 
night. The resultant plume of NE swell will propagate outward 
crossing the equator between 95W and 110W on Mon afternoon, 
while reaching far W as 10N120W late Mon.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A band of strong to near gale 
force NE winds extends SW from the Gulf of Papagayo to near 
08N88W and is expected to become wider and increase to minimal 
gale force overnight through morning across and downwind of the 
area. Expect frequent gusts of 35 to 45 kt tonight through Mon 
morning within this plume of winds. Maximum seas to 11 ft are 
expected to build tonight through Mon. Wind will diminish to 
Strong nocturnal pulses are expected to resume on Tue night. 20 
to 30 kt on Mon and 20 to 25 kt Tue and Wed in much smaller area 
coverage of winds. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends WSW from the Pacific coast of Colombia 
near 09N75W TO 07N78W TO 05.5N95W, where afternoon scatterometer 
winds indicated a transition to an ITCZ, which continues W-NW to 
a 1012 mb surface low at 08N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 08N 
E of 86W to the coasts. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is observed within 90 nm N and 60 nm S of the axis between 86W 
and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

W of the Baja California Peninsula:  A gentle variable breeze 
will continue around a weak N to S orientated trough along 115W. 
The trough will shift W reaching along 119W tonight, then move 
back E again Mon and gradually dissipate as as ridge axis builds 
E into the area along 22N116W to 15N101W on Mon night. The 
leading edge of large NW swell will arrive near 30N120W early 
Mon, with seas of 8 to 13 ft expected W of Baja on Mon night 
through Wed due to 18 to 22 second long-period NW swell.

Gulf of California: Light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire gulf waters through Thu. 
  
See special feature section for information about a gale warning 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See special feature section for information about a gale warning 
in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Gulf of Fonseca: Strong to near gale force winds occurring 
across the W Caribbean behind a cold front will surge through 
the mountain gaps of Central America and across the Pacific 
waters to the N of 11N and E of 92W, including the Gulf of 
Fonseca through early Mon. Winds of 20 to 30 kt are expected to 
extend up to 120 nm downwind of the coasts. The NE swell from 
these gap winds, and large ENE swells from the Gulf of Papagayo 
event further to the S, are merging with NW to N swell 
propagating S from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, setting up 7 to 11 
ft seas across the offshore waters from roughly 04N to 14N W of 
87W. These seas will continue through early Tue before subsiding 
from the E. 

Fresh to locally strong N winds are forecast across the Gulf of 
Panama early tonight. Elsewhere, light to moderate SW winds will 
persist S of Costa Rica and Panama through Sat with seas 
generally between 3 and 6 ft.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  A cold front slowing from 32N134W to 
26N140W will stall from 32N131W to 26N140W on Mon, and dissipate 
on Mon night as a secondary cold front moves into the area. 
Large 10 to 20 ft seas, in long period 17 to 22 second NW swell, 
will propagate SE across the discussion area reaching the 
Pacific coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula on Mon. 
These swell will generate very large and powerful surf along the 
regional coasts and offshore reefs. Seas will then gradually 
subside late Tue through Wed.
   
$$
Stripling