000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm/Gale Warning: Storm conditions will soon diminish to a strong gale that will persist through the middle of the week likely ending around sunset on Thu, with winds forecast at 20 kt or less on Sat afternoon. The resultant plume of NE swells, in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, will propagate outward crossing the equator between 95W and 110W beginning on Mon afternoon, while reaching far W as 10N120W late Mon. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A band of strong to near gale force NE winds extends SW from the Gulf of Papagayo to near 07N93W with a narrow band of gale winds from near 10.5N86W to 09N87W this morning and again tonight. Additionally, expect frequent gusts of 40 to 45 kt. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft downstream of the region on Sun and continue through Mon. Strong nocturnal pulses are expected to resume on Tue night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends WSW from the Pacific coast of Colombia at 07.5N78W to 08N86W to 05N99W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues W-NW through an embedded 1011 mb surface low at 08N113W to 09N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side of line from 04N77W to 08N113W to 07N121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special feature section for information about a gale/storm warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. W of the Baja California Peninsula: A gentle variable breeze will continue around a weak N to S orientated trough along 115W, with the possibility of weak surface low forming briefly. The trough will shift W reaching along 119W this evening, then move back E again tonight into Mon and gradually lose identity along 115W as as ridge axis builds E into the area along 22N116W to 15N101W on Mon night. The leading edge of large NW swell will arrive near 30N120W early Mon, with seas of 8 to 13 ft expected W of Baja on Mon night through Wed primarily due to 20 to 22 second long-period NW swell. Gulf of California: Fresh NW winds across the far northern gulf waters Will diminish by this evening with light to moderate NW flow then forecast across across the entire gulf waters through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See special feature section for information about a gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gulf of Fonseca: Strong N to NE winds will surge through the gaps across the Pacific waters to the N of 11N and E of 92W, including the Gulf of Fonseca through early Mon. The NE swell from these gap winds, and large ENE swells from the Gulf of Papagayo event further to the S, are merging with NW-N swell propagating S from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, resulting in 7 to 11 ft seas forecast across the offshore waters from roughly 04N to 14N W of 87W. These seas will continue through early Tue before subsiding from the E. Fresh to locally strong N winds are forecast across the Gulf of Panama beginning this evening, continuing through sunrise on Mon. Elsewhere, light to moderate SW winds will persist S of Costa Rica and Panama through Sat with seas generally between 3 and 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front slowing from 32N135W to 26N140W will stall from 32N132W to 26N140W on Mon, and dissipate on Mon night as a secondary cold front moves into the area. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed within 300 nm E of the front. Large 12 to 22 ft seas, primarily due to long period 17 to 22 second NW swell, will propagate SE across the discussion area reaching the Pacific coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula on Mon. Seas will then gradually subside through Wed. $$ Nelson