000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1435 UTC Wed Jan 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong winds over the Gulf N of 14.6N will quickly subside to light and variable by this evening as seas subside to between 2 and 4 ft. This lull in the action will be be brief. A very strong cold front blasting southward through the western Gulf of Mexico Thu night and Fri morning will set the stage for a long and robust gap wind event projected to begin over the Gulf around dawn on Fri morning as winds quickly increase to gale force. Once winds increase to gale force, they are not expected to fall below gale force until at least Wed night. This event is forecasted to peak at storm force on Sun. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N82W to 08N85W. The surface trough resumes from 09N87W to 06N88W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 07N110W to 07N120W to 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection is associated with these features. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front moving SE across Baja California Sur crosses the Gulf of California from 28N111W to 27N112W. The front continues SW across the Baja Peninsula to 26N112.5W, across the Pacific to 22N117W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 18N124W. Locally strong SW to W gap winds are occurring behind the front over the Gulf of California between 29.5N and 30.5N, but maximum seas will only be around 5 ft due to the limited fetch. Winds on the Pacific side of the Baja peninsula are moderate to fresh on either side of the front, and large seas of 12 to 15 ft are located west of the front, highest north of 26N and E of 125W. The front will continue SE across the remainder of Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California today, then dissipate tonight. Fresh winds will continue ahead of the front until midday. The large NW swell will gradually decay off Baja California through Thu. Seas in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands will subside below 8 ft Thu evening. Strong high pressure building over the U.S. Great Basin could generate strong NW winds over the central portion of the Gulf of California Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking at around 8 ft Fri morning near 26N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient over central America is maintaining moderate to fresh gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong winds are expected to redevelop there Sat morning as high pres builds over the western Caribbean. Winds could reach near gale force on Sun. Seas expected to develop from the Gulf of Papagayo will merge with the area of seas south of Tehuantepec on Sun. Elsewhere, light to moderate SW winds will persist S of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas will remain generally between 3 and 5 ft. Expect scattered nocturnal showers and thunderstorms south of Panama through Wed night. N winds over the Gulf of Panama could become fresh by Mon morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As noted above, a cold front extends across the forecast waters from 26N112.5W to to 22N117W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 18N124W. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pres centered near 31N135W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to strong Ne winds from 15N to 18N between 120W and 132W this evening through Thu morning. Seas will remain in excess of 8 ft north of 20N and west of 115W through Thu morning. This area of seas will slowly decay on Fri and Sat. A cold front approaching 30N140W Sun will generate more large long period NW swell, that could build to 20 ft in far northwest waters by Sun evening. $$ CAM