000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020914
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Tue Jan 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure along the eastern coast of Mexico and a surface trough
over the eastern north Pacific has helped to start the latest
gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Overnight
ASCAT pass depicts gale force over this area, reaching 40 kt.
This event will be strong and long lived, peaking near 45 kt and
lasting much of the week. Seas will peak near 18 ft Wed night 
into Thu morning. Swell associated with this event will push 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas 8 ft or greater 
reaching as far south as 05N and west to 108W by midweek. Refer 
to the latest high seas forecast issued under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N99W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N99W to 10N121W. It resumes from 09.5N127W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N
to 07N east of 83W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features section above for more details about
the gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Relatively tranquil marine conditions will persist through the 
week with light to gentle winds prevailing across the forecast 
waters. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft will continue in the 
offshore waters, while seas in the 1 to 3 ft range will prevail 
in the Gulf of California. NW swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate 
into the waters off Baja California Norte later in the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through the middle of the week. Winds will further increase to 
near gale force Thursday as high pressure builds north of the 
area. Light to gentle NE to E winds will prevail elsewhere N of 
09N, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pres of 1008 mb is centered near 28N136W. Overnight ASCAT
pass indicated fresh to strong winds west of the low. A fresh 
set of NW swell has propagated into the area, with seas near 13 
ft over the far NW waters near 30N140W. The low will shift N of
the area late tonight while weakening, and winds will diminish 
to 20 kt or less. Seas will continue to propagate southeast 
across the forecast waters while slowly subsiding. By midweek, 
seas 8 ft or greater associated to this swell will cover much of 
the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 125W by late Wed.

$$
AL