000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jul 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Hurricane Eugene is centered near 18.8N 117.2W at 1500 UTC about 
550 nm SSW of Punta Eugenia Mexico, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 
75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate 
convection is within 150 nm of the center. Eugene will weaken 
further during the next 24 to 36 hours as it moves NW across 
cooler waters. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave from 10N to 18N along 109W is moving W at 15 kt 
with scattered moderate convection well east of the wave axis 
from 12N to 16N between 100W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 10N76W across 
Panama and Costa Rica to 08N91W to 11N104W, then resumes from 
12N119W to 10N134W. The ITCZ continues from 10N134W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N 
between 77W and 92W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The area of tropical storm force winds on the periphery of 
Eugene is moving away from Clarion. Winds and seas are expected 
to diminish across the Revillagigedo Islands through Tuesday as 
the tropical cyclone moves away and weakens.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the 
waters beyond 200 nm off the coast of Baja California as Eugene 
moves NW roughly parallel to the peninsula through Wednesday. 
Large swell generated by the tropical cyclone will increase seas 
to 8-12 ft in this area.

The pressure gradient between ridging W of Baja California Norte
and troughing across the Baja California peninsula is supporting 
gentle to moderate southerly flow, which is expected to persist 
through much of this week. Pulses of fresh winds are possible 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Friday, 
briefly building seas to 6-7 ft each morning.
    
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh nocturnal winds are expected across the Gulf 
of Papagayo the next few days. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough axis. Long period 
cross-equatorial southerly swell and seas to 6-7 ft west of 
Colombia and Ecuador will gradually subside through Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for more information on Eugene.
Outside of this area, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southerly 
winds will be south of the trough axis. Seas will be generally 5 
to 6 ft, except 6-7 ft near the Equator. Little change is 
expected in the waters south of 20N through the end of the week.

$$
Mundell