000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 04.5N80W to low pres near 07.5N88.5W 1009 MB to low pres near 10N103.5W 1010 MB TO 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 04N113W TO 07N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 07.5N between 95W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 119W and 136W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 84W and 93W associated with low pres near 07.5N88.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 13.5N between 99W and 106W associated with low pres near 10N103.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale force SW winds occurring across the northern Gulf of California overnight through early this morning ahead of a cold front have diminished today, as the cold front has nearly dissipated across central portions of the gulf. Seas over north portions are assumed to have subsided to 4-7 ft this afternoon. Winds and seas will generally continue to gradually diminish tonight through Monday morning. Fresh to strong NWly winds prevail over the coastal waters off the coast of Baja California Norte with seas in the 8-13 ft range in northerly swell. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NW winds with seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail over the open waters from Baja California Sur to Cabo Corrientes. Winds off the coast of Baja California Norte will diminish to 20 kt or less on Monday. Seas are peaking near 13 ft over this area and will start to subside overnight, falling below 8 ft by midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters with seas in the 4-6 ft range. There remains uncertainty in the forecast through the middle of the week. An elongated cyclonic circulation has developed over the region. Upper atmospheric conditions will remain conducive for sustained deep convection through the middle of next week across central America and adjacent offshore waters to southeastern Mexico. Global models are in good agreement with the development of a low pressure area within this larger gyre, but disagree on the precise location, and strength, of this low. However, within this broad gyre, active convection over a large area could lead to periods of heavy rainfall across portions of the region from Costa Rica to SW Guatemala. Afternoon satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data suggest that a broad cyclonic circulation has begun to develop across this area, centered near 07.5N88.5W and is moving little. As mentioned above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 84W and 93W within this broad developing circulation. This area will continue to be monitored for improved organization and heavy rainfall potential along adjacent coastal zones. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb centered north of the area near 35N137W extends a ridge southeast to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the southwest United States is supporting fresh to strong winds over the northern waters east of 130W. Large northerly swell generated by gale force winds off the coast of California is bringing seas up to 15 ft into the northern waters east of 127W. This northerly swell is producing seas greater than 8 ft over the of the waters north of 20N and west of 113W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. The area of high pressure will weaken early this week which will diminish winds over the northern waters. Seas peaking near 16 ft today into Monday will start to subside, falling below 8 ft by midweek. $$ Stripling