000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1535 UTC Tue Oct 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

Surface troughing extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N95W to
11N104W. The monsoon trough begins near 11N104W and extends to
12N115W to a 1009 mb low near 10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the
monsoon trough axis between 109W and 125W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm either side of the surface trough, and
the monsoon trough west of 125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered nw of the area extends a ridge southeast
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte and
will continue to do so for the next 24 hours. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the remainder of the waters except light and
variable winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 7-8
ft range off the coast of Baja California Norte, 1-2 ft over the
Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. The ridge will shift
north and weaken through the week resulting in winds gradually
decreasing Wednesday night through Saturday, with mainly light to
gentle winds west of Baja California over the weekend.
Northwesterly swell to 9 ft may affect waters west of Baja
California Norte Wednesday through Friday. Seas will diminish to 4
to 6 feet west of Baja California over the weekend. Also over the
weekend, forecast models are indicating strong winds to develop
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light westerlies north of 09N and moderate southwesterlies south of
09N form an east to west surface trough that extends to the coast
of Costa Rica with isolated convection. From 02N to 08N tranquil
weather conditions, moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 5 feet
prevail. South of 02N, fair weather with gentle winds prevail.
Little change is expected across the area through the end of the
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered northwest of the area near
32N145W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure in the monsoon trough is producing an area of moderate
to fresh tradewinds north of the monsoon trough to near 25N. This
area of trades is helping produce seas in the 7-8 ft range north
of the monsoon trough to near 23N. The area of high pressure will
weaken starting Wednesday which will decrease winds and seas over
the forecast waters Wednesday through the end of the week. Low
pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N131W will move
slowly west to west-northwestward over the next few days before
moving west of the area by the end of the week.
      
$$
LATTO