000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 3 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 12N100W to 11N120W to 12N124W to low pressure near 11N128W 1011 mb to 10N138W then transitions to ITCZ axis to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the axis between 125W and 128W, and within 60 nm north of the axis between 130W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge extends from a 1029 mb high center located to the northwest of the area near 32N144W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A tight pressure gradient remains between the ridge and the Baja California peninsula. The resultant winds were highlighted in a recently received Ascat pass that showed moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of 28N west of the Baja California peninsula to near 121W. A pocket of strong NW winds are within 60 nm west of the peninsula north of 29N. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 9 ft. As the gradient relaxes through Wednesday, these winds will diminish to mainly moderate to fresh intensity north of about 25N. A continuing NW swell will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 28N between 118W and 132W on Wednesday. The Ascat pass showed light to gentle winds south of 25N. Seas there are in the range of 5 to 8 ft, and are forecast to subside to 5 to 6 ft Wednesday. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have subsided to 3 to 5 ft per a recent altimeter pass. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are in the Gulf of California. These winds are forecast to become generally light and variable on Wednesday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds across the area will become westerly at 10 to 15 kt through Wednesday. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwesterly swell are expected across the offshore waters through Wednesday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered northwest of the area as mentioned above and low pressure in the deep tropics near the Monsoon Trough is supporting an area of strong NE to E winds from 16N to 21N west of 138W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The high pressure is forecast to weaken weaken slightly as its shifts some to the south. This should weaken the pressure gradient allowing for the strong trades to diminish to fresh intensity from 15N to 22N west of 135W on Tuesday, and from 14N to 18N west of 135W on Wednesday with seas of 6 to 8 ft in a NE swell. Latest satellite imagery shows small low pressure embedded within the Monsoon Trough near 11N128W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen 120 nm of the low in the northwest quadrant, and within 60 nm of the low in the south quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the low in the northeast quadrant. The GFS and UKMET global model guidance are the most aggressive in depicting this low becoming better organized as it moves westward around 10 to 15 kt during the next 2-3 days. A swath of 20 to 25 kt winds with seas of 8 to 10 ft is forecast to gradually expand within 90 to 120 nm of the low in the southeast semicircle, and within 120 nm of the low primarily in the northwest and north quadrants. $$ AGUIRRE