000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1310 UTC Sun Jul 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Agatha is centered near 17.3N 123.6W at 1500 UTC
Jul 03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Agatha
is moving to the west-northwest or 290 deg at 11 kt around the
southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. The maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt, with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection was noted within 90 nm SW and 30 nm NE
semicircles of center. The storm is forecast to begin to weaken
over the next 24 hours as environmental conditions become less
favorable. Refer to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO
headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for additional details.

Tropical Storm Blas is centered near 11.6N 110.3W at 1500 UTC Jul
03. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The system
is moving west- northwest or 285 deg at 11 kt. The maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection was noted within 120 nm SW quadrant, 150 nm
NW quadrant, and 30 nm E semicircle of center. Blas is forecast to
reach hurricane intensity near 12.6N 114.1W Monday morning. Refer
to latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 88W and north of
05N.

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 101W and north
of 05N.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N87W to 08N98W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 04N
east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
of the monsoon trough between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm north and 60 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 93W and 98W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Expect winds to 20 to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft associated
with Tropical Storm Blas within 180 nm to the southwest of Clarion
Island by early Monday morning as Blas continues to the west-
northwest and intensifies to hurricane strength. Winds and seas
improve in this area by Monday night as Blas moves farther west.
Otherwise, a ridge will persist from roughly 30N130W to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Expect
generally moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft in open waters through
early next week.
     
South of 15N and east of 120W:

Other than the development and movement of Tropical Storm Blas,
expect fresh drainage winds in and downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo each night through Wed night. Scattered convection will
persist along the monsoon trough.

W of 120W:

See special features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Agatha currently in the central waters and Tropical Storm Blas with
associated conditions crossing 120W between 10-17N on Mon night.
The system will pass west across the central waters roughly from
10-20N this week passing south of a broad ridge across the
northern waters. Otherwise, northerly swell from roughly 20N to
25N west of 125W will decay below 8 ft through early Tuesday.

$$
AL