000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 21 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.     
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
The Monsoon Trough extends from low pressure 1004 mb over
Colombia near 07.5N73W to 09N83W to 09.5N94W. The ITCZ extends
from 09.5N94W to 07N113W to low pressure 1010 mb near 08N123.5W
to beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to
strong convection was noted within 150 nm north and 180 nm south
of the ITCZ W of 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                         
A strong surface ridge continues to dominate most of the
discussion area, centered on a 1033 mb high north of the
discussion area near 41N144W. A ridge axis extends southeast
through 30n126w to near 17N105W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds...mainly south of 20N
and west of 120W. The high is expected to remain relatively
stationary through tonight then begin sliding S-SW while
weakening Saturday and Sunday. This will result in a modest
weakening of the trade winds. To the east of the ridge, the
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure across
interior Mexico is maintaining moderate NW winds across the near
and offshore coastal waters of Baja California and southwest
Mexico to near Manzanillo. Seas across this area are generally 4-
5 ft in mixed swell. However, a new pulse of northerly swell
generated off the California coast is moving into northern
portions of the area tonight. This has built seas to 6-7 ft
across the coastal waters of Baja California Norte this
afternoon and evening, while seas across the remaining waters
north of 28N are also 6-7 ft in this northerly swell. Conditions
there will change little overnight before seas slowly subside
through Monday.

Gulf of California...                                        
Low pressure associated with the Gulf of California thermal
trough is forecast to develop across the far northern Gulf of
California late tonight. Strong south to southwest winds have
developed across far north portions of the Gulf late this
afternoon and evening and should gradually increase to 20-30 kt
overnight. Seas across the far northern Gulf will build to 6-8
ft tonight through early Saturday before the low shifts
northeast Saturday afternoon and winds diminish to around 15 kt.

Papagayo region...                                    
Offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse the
next couple of nights, and peak around 20-25 kt during the
overnight hours tonight before decreasing Saturday afternoon.
Seas will peak around 8 ft with the area of higher winds and
gradually subside below 6 ft by Saturday evening. Winds on
Saturday night are expected to reach only 20 kt and seas 6 ft.

$$ 
Stripling