000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280902
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 06N126W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH 22N120W TO 15N107W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
PREVAILS ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED
FROM 32N119W TO 31N130W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW IS FROM
30N-32N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 32N INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PASSES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW BEHIND IT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
GALE JUST AHEAD OF IT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT... HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A NEW SET OF SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL REACH THE SW FACING
SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...THEN WILL REACH
THE PACIFIC SHORES OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SWELL WILL DECAY SAT NIGHT
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING...
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH SE OF 30N140W MON NIGHT WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR TUE.

$$
LEWITSKY