000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240239 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. A NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N93W TO 03N115W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04S85W TO 00.5N103W TO 00.5N118W TO BEYOND 00N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF NORTHERN ITCZ W OF 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34.5N131W AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL NE PACIFIC...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 25N120W TO 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN ITCZ IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS S OF 28N AND W OF 125W...WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY OR LOCATION...MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND N MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A FRESH N-NW BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 25N. THESE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING THE NW SWELL OVER NE WATERS...WITH SEAS HERE 9 TO 11 FT. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH FRI AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND W OF 110W...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING AROUND 12 FT NEAR 10124W. THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE INTO WATERS S OF 14N AND COMBINE WITH SWELL GENERATED BY CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WINDS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT BY SUNRISE FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN OVER FAR NE WATERS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY FRI THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS N OF 30N WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NW-N BREEZE AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 FT BY SUNRISE FRI N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W- 130W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5- 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY FRI...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SEND A NEW PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG N WIND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNRISE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FORCED WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20-25 KT THERE. THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AS WELL AS LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE PROPAGATING FROM THE SOURCE REGION AND MERGING WITH SWELLS PREVIOUSLY GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL. CURRENTLY...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT IN THIS MIXED SWELL EXTEND AS FAR W AS 110W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. $$ STRIPLING