000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO 01N126W TO 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

HIGH PRES AT 1029 MB LOCATED JUST W-NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N142W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 24N122W AND ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO 13N104W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES FOUND IN THE W
CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE S. FRESH TO
STRONG NW FLOW IS POSSIBLE N OF 27N OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHERE WINDS AROUND THE RIDGING ARE BEING FUNNELED UP ALONG THE
COAST. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES AREA WEAKENS TO 1020 MB AND SHIFTS TO
30N131W AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER.

LARGE NW SWELLS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN W OF ABOUT 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-11
FT BY 48 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL
BREACH 30N140W THU NIGHT...GRADUALLY PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. FRESH SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT DUE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS.

$$
LEWITSKY