000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU MAR 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 02N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES SW TO 00N110W...THEN TURNS NW TO 03N124W..THEN SW AGAIN DIPPING S OF THE EQUATOR TO 01S138W...THEN TURNING NW TO BEYOND 00N141W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N88W TO 03N98W...AND FROM 04N119W TO 01S140W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY SURGE...WITH ACCOMPANYING SEAS OF 7-10 FT...IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5-95.5W INCLUDING THE WATERS OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG N SURGE WILL DEVELOP ON FRI...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE N WINDS WILL PEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...AND THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS ON SAT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 27N120W TO BEYOND 15N100W THROUGH FRI...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE N FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AROUND THE RIDGE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN LATER TODAY...INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15- 20 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT NEAR THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WILL BUILD FROM THE W TODAY AND FRI AS LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES E ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE ON SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N BEGINNING ON SUN. THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED N OF 25N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR GALE FORCE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS N OF 24N ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT NEAR 30N118W ON TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A STRONG SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON FOLLOWED BY STRONG W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. S OF 15N E OF 110W... NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SPREAD S INTO THE AREA NEAR 14N95W EARLY TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT N SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECT ON FRI...AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 94-97W EARLY SAT BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT SAT NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG 110W ON SAT NIGHT AND PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 95W ON MON NIGHT BEFORE BEGGING TO SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W HAS ONLY A 10- 15 KT SW-NW-N WIND SHIFT...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 12-19 FT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 22N125W ON FRI THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 22N THIS WEEKEND. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS ON FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W AT 1200 UTC SAT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 30-32N ON SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 0600 UTC SUN AS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 22N140W. HOWEVER...THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E AND SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N ON MON. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW FLOW N OF 23N BETWEEN 120-123W. THE TRADES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MON NIGHT WITH STRONG E WINDS ALONG 17N W OF 130W. $$ NELSON