000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE FORCE ONLY TO RETURN TO GALE FORCE TUE EVENING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT AGAIN...QUICKLY INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE WITH WINDS
TO 45 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. THIS SECOND
GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT BUT MAINTAINING
STRONG WINDS THROUGH THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE FLOW WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING NE NEAR GALE FORCE DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. STRONG NE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE
FORCE ON TUE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT NEAR 9N88W. THE EXTENT OF STRONG WINDS
WILL SPREAD SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N88W ON TUE
MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH THE
SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND THE LONG SWELL COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 06N90W. ITCZ FROM 06N90W
TO 07N105W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N109W TO 03N123W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM ITCZ TO 07N BETWEEN 116W AND 135W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ FROM 12N105W TO 08N107W WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E OF TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
MEANDERING NEAR 29N123W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE
17N107W. STRONG NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA S OF 30N AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. LARGE
NW SWELLS IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE E INTO THE AREA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...AND REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 106W
LATE MON NIGHT. THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING THEN COMBINE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT S OF 15N E OF 110W.  
    
S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...FRESH N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO STRONG MON
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA.
THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. 
 
ELSEWHERE FROM 00N TO 32N E OF 140W...CURRENTLY A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM 30N135W TO 29N140W AND WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06N TO 10N W OF 130W THROUGH EARLY
TUE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT THEN SUBSIDING DUE TO MIXING S AND N
SWELL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON WED. 
  
$$
PAW