000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISCUSSION AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS...IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 23 FT IN NW SWELL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N96W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N96W TO 06N110W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 06N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 103W...NEAR 04N130W AND NEAR 07N129W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 18N W OF 120W... AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. A TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE FAR NW MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 28N E OF 116W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS UP TO 11 FT VERY CLOSE TO THESE ISLANDS. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING TO THE NW WATERS...AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NEAR 30N142W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 28N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED EARLY ON SUN MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE 1800 UTC FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY SUN NIGHT. $$ GR