000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310907 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH SEAS REACHING A MAX OF AROUND 11 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI EVENING AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REACHING TO JUST BELOW STRONG GALE ON SAT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N87W ALONG 3N96W 7N108W 4N123W 5N135W TO BEYOND 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N127W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE THROUGH 32N125W TO NEAR 21N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 127W ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM W OF LINE FROM 14N122W TO 10N129W WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT COVERING A LARGE AREA ROUGHLY S OF 25N W OF 112W. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A VAST AREA OF MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N130W TO THE S BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N135W TO 24N140W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME A DISSIPATING FRONT FROM NEAR 32N134W TO 26N136W FRI NIGHT. NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO OVER 12 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E WITH THE STRONG S TO SW WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT. THE NW SWELL WILL BUILD THE SEAS TO NEAR 19 FT SAT NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE S OF 02N BETWEEN 113W-130W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI. GAP WINDS... GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG NE-E GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL MAX FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THE SEAS OF 8 FT SW COVERING A VAST AREA FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W TO 110W ON FRI AND FROM 6N- 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W BY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL ALSO USHER PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. $$ PAW