000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N85W ALONG 5N100W 6N115W 4N128W 5N137W
TO BEYOND 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                              

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N130W AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N126W TO NEAR 22N112W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND THE LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W WITH
SEAS IN THE 9 TO 11 FT RANGE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG
137W WHICH WILL MOVE E WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP
LATER TODAY FROM 14N121W TO 8N130W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE
WINDS TO STRONG WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST
SLIGHTLY. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SAT MORNING. 

SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT WILL BE CROSSING THE EQUATOR
LATER TODAY BETWEEN 105W AND 123W AND WILL MOVE AS FAR N AS 2N
BY TONIGHT. THESE 8 FT SEAS WILL THEN SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT PULSE OF N TO NE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE WED NIGHT WITH
WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT EARLY THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG TO NEAR GALE UNTIL THE NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD
AIR OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN PULSES OF STRONG
EASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT WILL PULSE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKENING TO FRESH
WINDS SUN NIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL ALSO SEND PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT.

$$
PAW