000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC TUE DEC 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N90W ALONG 7N100W 4N117W 6N127W TO
BEYOND 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
113W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERALL ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N135W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE
TO 32N130W TO NEAR 20N112W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N W OF 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N114W ACROSS THE
N GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 30N116W TO
28N120W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG NW WINDS N OF THE TROUGH WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT W OF BAJA PENINSULA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES E STRONG N
TO NW WINDS WILL BE IN THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A SHORT TIME
BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 11N-23N W OF 124W BASED
ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADE
WINDS REMAIN 8-11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. THE TIGHT GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN
SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST
SLIGHTLY AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO FRESH BREEZES. THE AREA OF SEAS IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE BUT REDUCE IN SIZE AS THE MIXED NE
AND NW SWELL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. 

SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 108W
AND 119W LATE TONIGHT AND N OF THE EQUATOR BY WED MORNING. THESE
8 FT SEAS WILL SHIFT W THROUGH WED NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PULSE OF GAP WINDS WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND HAS BECOME STATIONARY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...ADDITIONAL GAP WIND PULSE IS EXPECTED TO START
WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT FRI
NIGHT AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN PULSES OF STRONG
EASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THAT WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. THE CARIBBEAN
WINDS WILL ALSO SEND PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT.

$$
PAW