000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280859
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N89W ALONG 7N106W 7N119W 4N132W TO BEYOND
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N
TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 122W AND
126W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 132W AND 139W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AS THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
WINDS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS
ISLANDS AS NOTED PER THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE
SUBSIDING AND WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FT AROUND THE SAME TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS EARLY TODAY EXTENDING
FROM 31N116W TO 28N120W TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 32N111W TO 29N115W EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE W OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N
OF 30N WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE GULF BY TUE MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 6N TO 22N W OF 134W BASED ON
LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY THEN RELAX...DECREASING
THE WINDS TO FRESH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE NEXT
PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY TUE EVENING. LOOKING
AHEAD...ADDITIONAL GAP WIND PULSE IS EXPECTED TO START WED NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT FRI NIGHT AS A
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN WINDS
WILL ALSO GIVE PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. 

$$
PAW