000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280336 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON DEC 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 07N110W TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 122W... AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS AS NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS WELL AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING 8 FT SEAS IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO PRIMARILY NW SWELL. BRIEF PULSES OF STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR N WATERS EARLY ON MON...EXTENDING FROM 32N117W TO 27N125W TO 28N140W BY MON EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY MON EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...N OF PUNTA EUGENIA...MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20 KT. AT THE SAME TIME...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 25N W OF 130W... AND FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 125W. MAINLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE NEXT PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED MON EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL GAP WIND PULSES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR OCCURS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ON SUN...GAP WINDS WERE ACTIVE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ALSO THROUGH PUERTO SANDINO ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. AROUND 2200 UTC...SHIP CALL SIGN C6TQ3 LOCATED NEAR 11N90W WAS REPORTING E WINDS OF 25 KT. STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PULSES...ALBEIT WEAKER...IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA ON THU. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. $$ GR