000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 07N100W TO 08N117W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS
EXTEND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS AS
NOTED PER A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS ON MONDAY. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS WELL AND
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING 8 FT SEAS IN THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO
PRIMARILY NW SWELL. BRIEF PULSES OF STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS
ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THROUGH TUE...BUT ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MID
WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE NEXT
PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED MON EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL GAP WIND
PULSES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

GAP WINDS WERE ACTIVE EARLIER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND ALSO THROUGH PUERTO SANDINO ON THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THESE ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY BUT STRONG TRADE WIND
FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL PULSES...ALBEIT WEAKER...IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND
MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS
WELL.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 25N W OF
130W...AND FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BASED ON LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF THE TRADES
WILL DECREASE ON MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE WATERS FROM FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N
TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY TONIGHT BUILDING SEAS UP
TO 11 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER BY MON AFTERNOON. 
   
$$
GR