000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N82W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N90W TO 07N110W TO 05N135W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN
110W AND 120W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES AREA
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND SAT IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SET UP A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN DEEP LOW
PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEST OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING WINDS GALE FORCE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRES IS NOW WEAKENING AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING FARTHER
EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A
RESULT. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS BY
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS WELL AND SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT
IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING 8 FT SEAS IN
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO PRIMARILY NW SWELL. ANOTHER
MID/UPPER INPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MON WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. BRIEF
PULSES OF STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH TUE...BUT ACCOMPANYING NW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FT WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MID WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET FOR NOW BUT THE NEXT
PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE MON AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REACH 8
FT WITHIN 120 NM DOWNSTREAM BY EARLY TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  LOOKING AHEAD...ADDITIONAL GAP WIND
PULSES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...GAP WINDS WERE ACTIVE EARLIER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ALSO THROUGH PUERTO SANDINO ON
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THESE ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY BUT
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DRAINAGE
EFFECTS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL PULSES...ALBEIT WEAKER...IN THESE
AREAS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA AS WELL...SUPPORTING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF 05N W OF 110W
BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
AREA OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NE-E WINDS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 27N W OF
130W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW
CORNER BY TONIGHT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER
BY MON AFTERNOON. 
   
$$
CHRISTENSEN