000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT DEC 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A DEEP LOW PRES OF 1000 MB CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR EL PASO TEXAS AND A 1034 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 36N130W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING ELSEWHERE N OF 25N. THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND S ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO A MAX OF 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N85W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N90WTO 06N110W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 121W... AND WITHIN 150NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W 130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB HIGH PRES AREA OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A DEEP 1000 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR EL PASO TEXAS. SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL EMERGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEAR LOWER LYING TERRAIN ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N94W THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED N WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ELSEWHERE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED 1034 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 36N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF 07N W OF 122W TO A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 31N131W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST JUST N OF OF 30N. AS A RESULT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH SUN. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY SUN NIGHT BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 30N140W BY MON AFTERNOON. $$ GR