000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1005 UTC SAT DEC 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 26/1800 UTC FOR THE NORTH
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IS SUPPORTING
STRONG NW WINDS N OF 30N TONIGHT THEN INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE N OF 28N WITH STRONG WINDS EXPANDING S ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO A MAX OF
12 FT SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY
STILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N77W TO 4N83W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
4N92W ALONG 6N108W 6N129W TO 5N137W. SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 10N137W TO 3N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ TO 8N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.
CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 38N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...FROM 08N TO 27N W OF 122W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONTINUES TO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME
RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE...MAINLY N OF 24N E OF 122W. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO
A POSITION NEAR 34N131W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
IN FROM THE WEST JUST N OF OF 30N. AS A RESULT...A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W SAT SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING AN
INCREASE IN THE AREA OF NW WINDS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND ALSO INCREASING THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION.  

AN ALTIMETER PASS NEAR 26/0000 UTC INDICATES MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS
OF 8 TO 12 FT COVER A BROAD AREA MOSTLY N OF 8N W OF 112W...
LIKELY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 110W THROUGH SUN. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
GULF OF FONSECA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS EXTENDING SW
AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW
RESULTING IN 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 11N92W
SAT EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN EVENING.  

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO 20 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6
FT WITH THE FRESH WINDS.
 
   
$$
PAW