000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT DEC 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N TONIGHT.
BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
OF 10-11 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS BY SAT EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 26N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
BY SAT NIGHT...BUT GUSTY WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N92W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N92W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
TO 10N W OF 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 38N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...FROM 08N TO 28N W OF 122W...AND
FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 122W.
A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 13
FT WITHIN THIS AREA...LIKELY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 34N129W IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. AS A RESULT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W DURING THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA
OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE
AREA OF NW WINDS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALSO
INCREASING THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT RESULTING FROM NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF
110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD...16-17 SECOND...NW SWELL
ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SE COVERING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO TO NEAR
17N127W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR
NW CORNER BY SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH
20-30 KT NE-E WINDS EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 92W. THE
RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT
COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N95W DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 5-6 FT WITH THE
FRESH WINDS.
 
   
$$
GR