000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252157 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI DEC 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N TONIGHT.
BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
OF 11-12 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS BY SAT EVENING WHEN NW WINDS
OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N90W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N90W TO 07N115W TO 08N132W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
103W AND 108W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 131W...
AND FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 37N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...FROM 08N TO 28N W OF 125W...AND
FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND A TROUGH
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...
MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 120W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED
MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS NEAR 13 FT WITHIN THIS AREA...LIKELY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E-SE TO A POSITION
NEAR 37N129W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. AS A
RESULT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 110W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE
AREA OF NW WINDS JUST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING ALSO THE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT RESULTING FROM NW SWELL AND NE WIND
WAVES DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF
110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF PERIOD OF 16-17
SECONDS FROM THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR
18N128W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR
NW CORNER BY SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG NE-E GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING COVERING THE WATERS FROM 9.5N TO 13N E
OF 92W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR
DOWNSTREAM AS 10N95W DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH BY SAT EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
INTO THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.   
   
$$
GR