000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI DEC 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 10-12 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS BY SAT EVENING WHEN NW WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF 29N THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 07N86W TO 06N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N91W TO 07N110W TO 08N117 TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST N OF AREA ALONG 31N FOLLOWED BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 42N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR N WATERS EARLY ON FRI BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER ON FRI. THE HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 130W...AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED AND AREA OF 25-30 KT NE WINDS FROM 05N TO 21N W OF 135W. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 125W. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN THIS AREA...LIKELY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 39N133W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FRI EVENING INTO SAT SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF NW WINDS JUST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING ALSO THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT RESULTING FROM NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 110W...HIGHEST OVER THE NE WATERS N OF 26N E OF 125W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY REACHING THE FAR N WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA N OF 20N BY LATE FRI. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY SUN NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG NE-E GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT INTO FRI COVERING THE WATERS FROM 9.5N TO 13N E OF 91W BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. BY THEN... EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM 09.5N TO 13N E OF 92W. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ GR