000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO 06N87W TO 05N98W. ITCZ FROM 05N97W TO 07N105W TO 06N120W TO 07N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 83W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N143W TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 1006 MB LOW PRES OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20- 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 26-32N E OF 120W ...WITH SEAS OF 9-16 FT. MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 110-120W. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY RELAX FROM THE N TONIGHT...THEN WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON FRI EVENING INTO SAT WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN N OF 24N E OF 120W...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 10-15 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N LATE SAT AS MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N AND SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUN WITH N-NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAC WATERS FROM 18-24N E OF 120W. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING ON MON EVENING. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N86W TO 12N89W THROUGH MID MORNING THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N86.5W TO 11N90W. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WSW RESULTING IN 7- 10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10.5N92W DURING THE AFTERNOONS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 08.5N79.5W TO 06N79.5W...TO INCLUDE THE W GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 30N128W TO NEAR 15N105W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ITCZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NEAR 30N140W LATE SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY LATE MON AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN